The Kindle Fire in action, photo courtesy of This is my next...
And I'll go ahead and get to the punchline now: Apple should be concerned, Google is screwed, and Amazon's new browser, Silk, is the biggest surprise of all.
The inevitable Kindle Fire vs. iPad discussion
When Apple announced the iPad, Steve Jobs worked very hard to push the idea that the iPad wasn't merely an ancillary device that was only good for reading, watching movies, and playing games. Instead, Jobs pitched the iPad as a device suitable for creating content too. As such, he spent considerable time demonstrating the iPad's email application, and went even farther — demonstrating the full iWork suite for iOS.
Since that time, the iPad has certainly been a huge hit. But I don't know if it's entirely clear why the iPad is selling so well. Are people buying iPads and just using them to watch movies and TV shows? Or are they buying iPads for email, iWork, and Garage Band?
Speaking from my own experience, I feel that Apple hasn't quite made the case yet, that the iPad can be primarily thought of as a fully-fledged laptop replacement. I have found that while it is possible to create content on my iPad, it's typically annoying to do so, when compared with my Macintosh. As a result, I almost never do it.
And that is Amazon's bet. Amazon is betting that people primarily want tablets to consume. And that is exactly what they have made with the Kindle Fire. And so now, the market will sort this out. If iPad sales fall off of a cliff this winter, while Kindle Fire sales take off like a rocket, then we'll have our answer. But my guess is that Apple figured that they had a few more years to flesh out iPad functionality and apps, to make it a more fully-formed experience. And now, the Amazon has turned up the heat (ha, see what I did there?), and now maybe Apple will have to innovate a little faster than they would like.
Oh, and while they are at it, Amazon has almost certainly introduced the subsidy model into the tablet market (something that Apple has been consciously avoiding). Amazon is probably selling the actual Kindle Fire devices at a loss, and betting that they will eventually turn a profit, as Kindle Fire owners buy books, music, movies, TV shows, and magazines. We'll see if this bet pays off for them, but I bet that it probably will. This is the same way that most video game consoles work, and that market tends to be pretty profitable for the hardware manufacturers.
Kindle Fire makes Google sad
Google has poured millions billions of dollars into Android development, patents, and you know, buying Motorola. And because previous versions of Android were open source, Amazon was able to take Android 2.3, put their own skin on it, and produce the Kindle Fire. Google's reasoning for making Android freely available is that it would increase people's exposure to Google ads, which is how they make their money.
But I have a hard time seeing how Google is going to make one thin dime off of Kindle Fire sales. Sure, it's possible that that Kindle Fire owners might fire up the web browser, and do a Google search, and click on a Google ad. But I don't think that's incredibly likely.
So my guess is that Google is pissed about this. Android is now officially forked — if you're an app developer, and you want your app to run on the Kindle Fire (and you'd be stupid not to), then you have to target Android 2.3. But if you also want to support the "official" Android tablets, then you also need to target Android 3.0.
And the kicker in all of this is that if Google releases the source code to the next version of Android, Amazon can just take it, and make the Kindle Fire even better, all for free.
Remember that blog post I wrote about how Google might close the Android source code permanently? Doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?
Amazon's Silk browser kills privacy dead
And we all thought that Facebook was trying to eliminate all privacy, right? I have to admit, I didn't see this coming from Amazon. While I thought they'd make a tablet optimized for consuming content from their stores, I wasn't sure if it would even have a web browser.
So I certainly didn't think that Amazon would blow the doors off the thing, and introduce a radically new approach to web browsing. And while Opera has experimented with server-side rendering, this approach hasn't been anything close to mainstream. And if Amazon can actually pull this off — if browsing with Silk is way faster than with other mobile browsers? Oh boy.
I think that Silk is surprising to me on two fronts. One, is that I think that people won't mind the huge privacy concerns. I'm detecting a just a general privacy fatigue / lack of understanding amongst today's average consumer, so I'm guessing that there won't be any blow-back here. And what does Amazon get out of this? Well, Chris Espinosa explores the implications in his blog, and let's just say, Silk could be huge for Amazon. Secondly, I'm stunned by how Amazon is flexing their cloud muscles. I mean, Amazon's web services have been the best and most innovative, for like, ever. But with Silk, they're fusing their cloud services with a client side device in a way that has never been done before.
My hat is off to them. It's going to be very tough for Apple, Google, or anybody to compete with this thing. You should really watch the Silk video, the confidence that Amazon exudes is impressive. I sortof want a Kindle Fire, just to play around with Silk.
Bonus loser: Nintendo
Oh man, Amazon practically nuked Nintendo from orbit with the Kindle Fire.
I mean seriously, who in their right mind is going to go out and buy a Nintendo Wii U next year? (well, I might, because I am a goddamn Nintendo fanboy)
I don't think there is any way the Wii U will come in at $200. It's more likely to cost $300, or maybe more. And what is the Wii U? It's a 7" touch screen controller (just like the Kindle Fire), that tethers to the TV. But why would anybody mess around with that, when they can just buy a Kindle Fire (or two), and play games on there?
Games, I might add, that will be way cheaper than what Nintendo is going to charge for Wii U games. The trend that Apple has started, has just been accelerated by Amazon.
Conclusionary Thoughts!
This is why I like paying attention to the technology market. When things are working well, it changes so rapidly, that it's really fun to try and keep on top of things, and speculate as to where things are going. Assuming the Kindle Fire actually works as promised, Amazon has really shaken up the not-yet-two-year-old tablet market. Not bad, for a company that started selling books on the Internet.
But what's really great, is that Amazon has shaken things up through innovation, combined with lots of hard work. The Kindle Fire doesn't feel like an iPad rip-off, the way that a Samsung tablet does. And this is the kind of competition that is good, and healthy for the market, and that ultimately less to better products for us, the consumers.
-Andy.