I've been meaning to post about this for awhile. As Apple appears to be ramping up to a new version of the iPhone, we are starting to see another round of articles that are inanely critical of what Apple is doing with the iPhone.

Jason Snell does a good job of refuting the latest hit piece. Money quote:

Macworld | Mac Word | Why Apple will sell 10 million iPhones: \"First, let’s take the idea that iPhone sales have ‘settled down.’ Yes, in the first three months of the year Apple claims to have sold 1.7 million phones, an average of 568,000 a month. However, in the months of July, August, and September of 2007—the first full quarter of the iPhone’s availability—Apple sold 1.1 million iPhones. Which means, despite all of that iPhone launch hype and all the pent-up demand for the iPhone, sales between those two quarters grew by 52 percent.\" (Via Daring Fireball.)

But here is the thing - there are really only two legitimate reasons to not buy an iPhone right now: cost and carrier restrictions. While I think that all of the cell phone companies are basically the same, there are differences in reception for people, and some people are grandfathered into great plans that they cannot leave. So, not wanting to switch to AT&T just to get an iPhone can be a legitimate thing.

The second issue is cost. Let's face it - the iPhone packs a lot of high technology into a small package, and as such, it is expensive. While I personally feel that it has been more than worth the cost, not everybody feels that way. And that's totally fine, and a valid reason not to buy an iPhone.

The crazy thing about this, is that Apple controls both of these variables! If Apple wants to sell more iPhones, it is a simple matter of either lowering the price, or getting rid of carrier exclusivity (or maybe both). I think that is why Apple is so bullish on selling 10 million iPhones in 2008 - because they know that they control their own destiny. And that is a great position to be in.

-Andy.