While I have already pontificated on the potential appeal of the new MacBook Air, opinions can be found on either side as to whether or not the MacBook Air is going to be a success. Recently, in "The Appeal of the MacBook Air", John Gruber wrote:
"The key to understanding the appeal of the Air is that you've got to stop thinking about technical specs as the primary factors. Here's an analogy: the MacBook Air is like a sporty convertible coupe. You buy one not for practical reasons, but because it is satisfying to own something beautiful and clever and fun."
That quote, along with the rest of the article, basically highlights a bunch of reasons why people might choose to buy a MacBook Air. And while there is no doubt that the MacBook Air will appeal to a certain niche of the computer buying public, the question still remains - how is this product actually going to do for Apple. Will it be a success? What does it mean for the MacBook Air to be a success?
Because Apple is really doing their own thing in regards to the PC business, most metrics for success don't rely on raw number of units sold. Instead, when I think about Apple's products, here are the metrics that I use:
- Do I absolutely have to have the product as soon as it is released? If so, then I probably regard it as being a success.
- Do I have lust for the product, but hold off from purchasing due to budgetary reasons? Probably, it'll be a hit.
- Does the product in question bring new customers into the Apple world?
- Does the product sell well, relative to other Apple products?
The MacBook Air has already failed on metrics #1 and #2, but let's see if we can try to evaluate #3 and #4.
In terms of bringing in new customers, the MacBook Air, like all Apple products, has a striking visual appeal. Their are aspects of this machine that will make it attractive to those that crave the very best, or are looking for a different mix of features (full-size keyboard and screen) in a sub-notebook. So, it's pretty likely that some fraction of MacBook Air owners will be new to the Mac. However, let's not kid ourselves here - this thing is no iPod (which is the gold standard in terms of products that bring in new customers). Not only has the iPod been bringing in new customers, but anecdotally, it appears to have been successfully in bring new customers to the Mac.
What about the last point - what are the MacBook Air's prospects in regards to the rest of the Macs that Apple sells? I read an interesting article on ZDNet today, which included some analysis from Gene Munster, of Piper Jaffray:
"However, Munster did note that customers were curious about the MacBook Air, but 'less willing to buy the MacBook Air than they were with the original MacBook.' Perhaps that reaction is due to pricing, smaller customer wallets or concerns about features. But we won't really know what’s going on with MacBook Air demand for a few quarters."
There are a few things that are interesting in the above quote. The first is the claim that interest in the Air isn't necessarily translating into sales. When you compare the MacBook and the MacBook Air side-by-side, you'll find that they are basically the same on the inside, save for the $700 price difference. I think that alone will drive a lot more sales towards the MacBook.
But more importantly, is the last sentence - it's going to be impossible to evaluate the success of the MacBook Air in the sort term. Whenever Apple releases an entirely new Mac, there is always a burst of sales from the "mac faithful", whom either buy whatever Apple releases, or have been waiting for years for a successor to the 12" PowerBook G4. After that backlog of customers clears out, it'll be interesting to see what kind of sales numbers the MacBook Air can muster on a sustained basis. Of course, it is going to be impossible to know this for sure - because Apple doesn't break down their sales numbers by product line.
The best way that I have seen to figure this out is to make an educated guess, which the ZDNet blog post attempts:
Gene Munster's estimated Apple Mac product breakdown (source: ZDNet / PJC)
While I don't know that I agree entirely with the above chart (I'd think that the Mac mini would be a better seller than the Mac Pro), I think that the essential point is valid - the MacBook, iMac, and MacBook Pro account for the lion's share of Apple's Mac sales. I'm guessing that there is a pretty big drop-off between the sales of those three machines and that of the Mac Pro and the Mac mini. So, the first question, is can the MacBook Air out-sell either the Mac Pro or the Mac mini? If so, by how much?
On this point, time will tell. And the evaluation, will be tricky. We'll have to continue to look for any scrap of information from Apple, and grapple with the prognostications of the analysts.
-Andy.
Technorati Tags: Analysis, Apple, iPod, MacBook Air, Piper Jaffray, ZDNet, Daring Fireball
Another interesting but impossible to measure metric: how many customers are drawn into the apple stores to touch and feel a mac air, but then walk out with some other mac (e.g. macbook). How many of *those* people are new to the mac, and how many would never walk into the apple store if not for the air?
-Chris