About the tablet

I remain skeptical of the rumors of the Apple tablet. Well, let me be clear -- I think that the rumors indicate that Apple is working on such a device. But wether or not it will ever ship, is entirely unclear.

The latest article on this topic comes from the Wall Street Journal (link via Google, so that you can actually read the article), and I actually find it plausible on a number of fronts. The WSJ article states:

  1. Tablets have been on the market for years (driven by Microsoft), and sales of been more than lackluster.

  2. Apple has killed many tablet projects (this is probably true).

  3. Price is going to be an issue -- if the thing costs $1k, why not just buy a MacBook? And if it costs only $400, will it be full-featured enough to compete with a netbook?

  4. And finally, this gem:

    "Those working on the project are under intense scrutiny from Mr. Jobs, particularly with regard to the product's advertising and marketing strategy, said one of these people."

That last one is the real killer. The problem with an Apple tablet, or any tablet for that matter, is primarly one of marketing. So it makes a lot of sense that Steve Jobs would be focusing his efforts there.

Think about it -- I already have a an iPhone, and a MacBook. Right now, it's pretty easy for me to know which device I should reach for in a given situation. Standing on the corner, waiting for the bus? iPhone. Sitting on the bus, riding to work? MacBook + EVDO. You can go on and on. But if I introduced a 3rd device, something larger than an iPhone but smaller than a MacBook, how would I decide when I would use it?

If Apple imbued the device with a fast processor and lots of RAM, then it would be suitable for general purpose tasks, and could potentially replace the MacBook. However, it would then probably cost nearly $1,000. If Apple gave the device a slower CPU and less memory, then it would be cheaper, but it might make for a frustrating experience. If I started off on the tablet, but hit a complex website with a lot of Javascript, or heaven forfend, flash, then I would get frustrated and want to turn to the MacBook.

And this, in a nutshell, is the main problem with the tablet form factor, and I'll wager the main reason why we haven't seen one from Apple yet. And if Apple does end up releasing a tablet, then it means they'll have made some innovation -- some great leap, which has solved this problem.

Don't hold your breath.

-Andy.

P.S. One more quote from the WSJ article:

"People close to Apple said Mr. Jobs is still thin as he recovers from the liver transplant, but his health has improved significantly.

I actually saw Steve Jobs when I was hanging out in South Bay over the weekend, and he looked great. It's true that he hasn't put on a lot of weight, but he seems to be fit and happy. So, of all the speculation contained in the WSJ article, I can confirm that one of their statements is true.